Here's a great rule of thumb for evaluating job applicants...

Past performance predicts future performance.

Why is this crucial to understand?

Because no matter how skilled a candidate is at networking or interviewing or how great their background is...

These factors pale in comparison to the predictive power of past job performance.

With that said, don't rely too heavily on this or misapply it altogether.

Remember #hiringaccuracy Principle 54:

PAST PERFORMANCE PREDICTS FUTURE PERFORMANCE, SOMETIMES

Why only sometimes?

3 reasons...

1. SUCCESS IN A PAST JOB DOESN'T NECESSARILY TRANSLATE TO SUCCESS IN YOUR JOB.

Jobs are different - even jobs that appear similar (e.g., jobs in the same function or industry).

Perhaps the old job involved different responsibilities, or was easier (more resources, better leadership), or the company culture was different, etc.

2. PEOPLE CHANGE.

You're not hiring who the person was 10 or even 2 years ago... You're hiring who the person is TODAY.

Some people who may have been great for the job back then may not be great for it now.

This could be for a variety of factors - they became complacent or arrogant, their life circumstances evolved, or maybe they didn't upskill as the world changed.

Some people change in the opposite direction of course too (for the better).

Both types of change matter...A LOT.

3. IT'S REALLY ABOUT ATTRIBUTES

Ultimately, people succeed or fail not because of what they've done but who they are. I.e., It's about their attributes.

A person with the right attributes is more likely to succeed than a person with the right past track record, but the wrong attributes.

Do you agree? Have you seen this principle play out in hiring and job performance?